Possible scenario
Centrist Bloc Wins
36% Chance
The anti-Netanyahu camp converts polling momentum into a Knesset majority, helped by war fatigue, anger over ultra-Orthodox conscription, and voter exhaustion with the Gaza campaign. National Unity, Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu, and a returning right-centrist faction become the core of coalition talks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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