Possible scenario
Netanyahu Survives Narrowly
28% Chance
Despite polling below a majority, Benjamin Netanyahu benefits from right-wing turnout, smaller opposition parties missing the threshold, and disciplined ultra-Orthodox voting. The resulting coalition is likely narrow, internally tense, and dependent on Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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