Possible scenario
Hung Knesset Deadlock
22% Chance
The election produces no clear majority, with Netanyahu's bloc below 61 and the opposition unable to assemble a stable alternative. Coalition bargaining stretches for weeks, raising the odds of a caretaker government, an internal Likud challenge, or another election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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