Possible scenario
Supply Normalizes Faster
25% Chance
A faster-than-expected restart cycle and policy-backed fuel flows reduce the shortage of refined products. Refining equities give back part of their windfall rally as crack spreads compress from extreme levels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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