Possible scenario
Margins Stay Elevated
40% Chance
The most likely path is that damaged and idled refining capacity returns only gradually, keeping diesel and gasoline cracks historically high. US refiners with operating plants benefit from unusually strong margins even if crude prices remain volatile.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Industrials -0.7%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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