Possible scenario
Governments Intervene
20% Chance
Record refiner profits during a fuel shortage increase political pressure in Washington, Brussels and the IEA. Emergency waivers, stock releases or export restrictions reduce the market value of the windfall even if physical supply remains tight.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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