Possible scenario
Federal Probe Escalates
36% Chance
The most likely escalation is a formal federal review because the new audio alleges both bribery and possible disclosure of China-related information. DOJ, the State Department inspector general, or both would likely start with preservation demands and interviews rather than immediate charges.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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