Possible scenario
Civil Fight Dominates
28% Chance
The dispute may stay primarily in civil court, where the donor lawsuit, the defamation claim, and the released call become discovery weapons. This path is plausible if investigators do not quickly verify the $3 million bribery or China-leak allegations.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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