Possible scenario
Trump Reverses Course
20% Chance
Trump's refusal proves tactical rather than final, and Bolsonaro allies lobby him to intervene later in the campaign. A reversal would re-internationalize the Brazilian election and revive concern that Washington could again use tariffs or diplomatic pressure over Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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