Possible scenario
Neutrality Holds
35% Chance
Trump maintains his refusal to endorse Flávio Bolsonaro, leaving the Brazilian right to campaign without explicit MAGA branding. Flávio remains viable because of the Bolsonaro family machine, anti-Lula sentiment, and sympathy for Jair Bolsonaro after his prison sentence, but the race becomes less internationally polarizing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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