Possible scenario
Anti-Bolsonaro Consolidation
30% Chance
Trump's non-endorsement deprives Flávio of a key international validation point and helps opponents argue that Bolsonaro politics no longer commands reliable U.S. backing. A Lula-aligned candidate or moderate anti-Bolsonaro coalition gains momentum by promising institutional calm and tariff normalization.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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