Possible scenario
Renewed Israel-Hezbollah War
20% Chance
A lethal strike on Israeli troops or civilians prompts a broader IDF campaign against Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. The conflict remains more likely to be regionalized than global, but it would materially lift near-term geopolitical risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.