Possible scenario
Negotiated Pullback Framework
25% Chance
Washington and Paris use aid, reconstruction funding, and military assistance to push a phased withdrawal deal. Lebanon links any Hezbollah disarmament steps to Israeli pullback, producing an imperfect but workable sequence monitored by UNIFIL and the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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