Possible scenario
Managed Border Standoff
45% Chance
Israel maintains the 700 square kilometer security belt as a de facto buffer while avoiding a full annexation declaration. Hezbollah limits its response to calibrated fire and political pressure because Lebanon's government and economy remain too fragile for another large war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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