Possible scenario
Congress Forces Action
18% Chance
If Trump resists, McConnell and other China hawks could pursue a legislative workaround through a defense bill, continuing resolution, or Taiwan-specific authorization. This would limit White House discretion and signal bipartisan support for Taiwan, though it could intensify intra-party conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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