Possible scenario
Aid Remains Frozen
28% Chance
Trump may continue withholding the package to avoid antagonizing Xi Jinping or to preserve bargaining room in broader U.S.-China talks. This would deepen congressional concern that the administration is weakening Taiwan deterrence, but the direct market impact remains limited because the dollar amount is small.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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