Possible scenario
Aid Released Quietly
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the White House releases the expiring $300 million package after pressure from Mitch McConnell and other defense hawks. Trump can frame the move as a limited drawdown rather than a major new commitment, reducing the risk of a Republican split while preserving leverage with Beijing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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