Possible scenario
Talks Collapse Militarily
−1.0%
Moscow concludes Kyiv lacks the political will to accept Russian terms and moves to secure gains by force. The most likely escalation remains concentrated in Donbas, but the collapse of talks would raise broader European security risk.
What it moves
- Industrials+2.3%
- Energy+1.9%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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