Possible scenario
Sustained Missile Campaign
30% Chance
Russia continues using modified ballistic and hypersonic missiles against Kyiv to exploit reported Patriot shortages. This would reinforce the view that Moscow is testing Ukrainian defenses ahead of winter rather than signaling a single isolated strike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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