Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
35% Chance
The most likely near-term consequence is a renewed Western push to fill Ukraine's air-defense gap after residential strikes in Kyiv. The use of new or modified Russian missiles strengthens Kyiv's case for Patriot, SAMP/T, NASAMS and interceptor resupply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- RTX+1.9%
- +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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