Possible scenario
Sanctions Without Shift
20% Chance
Western governments respond with condemnation, new designations and export-control enforcement against Russia's missile supply chain. The measures have symbolic and incremental industrial effects but do not materially change the battlefield in the next few days.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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