Upstart Challenger

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Obsidian 3 may belong to a non-incumbent lab such as xAI, DeepSeek, Mistral, or Alibaba’s Qwen team. A credible upstart win would signal that coding-agent leadership is not locked up by Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.

What it moves

Business Services+0.1%
Technology−0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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