OpenAI Reveal

32%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely high-impact explanation is that Obsidian 3 is an unreleased OpenAI model tested anonymously before launch. A confirmed OpenAI win on FrontierCode 2.0 would reset the post-Claude narrative in frontier coding and intensify enterprise AI-agent competition.

What it moves

Technology+0.3%
Business Services−0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?