Possible scenario
Lebanon War Expands
32% Chance
Hezbollah and Israel move beyond calibrated exchanges into a broader air-and-ground conflict. Lebanon faces large-scale displacement, with Beirut and international agencies preparing for hundreds of thousands to more than one million civilians moving northward or inland.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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