Possible scenario
Iran Enters Directly
18% Chance
Iran joins Hezbollah with direct missile or drone attacks on Israel, echoing prior escalations in 2024 and 2026. The conflict remains below a declared regional war, but markets price a higher risk of Gulf energy disruption and U.S. involvement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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