Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
38% Chance
Israel's warning is used mainly to deter Hezbollah and Iran from launching a coordinated attack. Cross-border fire continues, but both sides avoid a step that would force a full Israeli ground campaign into Lebanon.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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