Contained Retaliatory Strikes

Iran follows through with a more organized retaliation plan but calibrates attacks to avoid forcing an all-out U.S. response. The most likely channel is missiles, drones, and proxy fire against U.S. positions in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar, or the Gulf, with Tehran preserving deniability where possible.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.