Possible scenario
Backchannel De-escalation
22% Chance
The headline proves to be part of coercive signaling rather than a decision to launch a major attack. Oman, Qatar, Turkey, China, or Russia help create a face-saving channel in which Iran can claim deterrence while avoiding direct confrontation with U.S. forces.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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