Possible scenario
Hormuz Maritime Pressure
27% Chance
Iran chooses maritime leverage rather than a direct strike on U.S. bases, using harassment, mines, seizures, or anti-ship missiles to raise costs for Washington and Gulf allies. This path is attractive to Tehran because even limited disruptions can lift oil prices and pressure Europe and Asia to restrain the United States.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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