Possible scenario
Deliveries Proceed Smoothly
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the U.S. allows the AMRAAM-ER sale to move forward after earlier political delays, framing it as a defensive air-defense package. Taiwan gains a clearer medium-range air-defense plan, while Beijing protests but avoids a major escalation.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Tickers
- RTX+1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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