Possible scenario
Beijing Retaliates Limitedly
25% Chance
China is likely to respond politically and militarily, but still below the threshold of blockade or open conflict. Beijing may use the sale to justify exercises, sanctions threats, and diplomatic pressure on Washington and Taipei.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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