Possible scenario
Prolonged Standoff
30% Chance
The crisis settles into a sustained military and diplomatic standoff without direct use of force. Ottawa accelerates defense procurement and Arctic infrastructure while Washington maintains pressure through military signaling, tariffs and Greenland-based operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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