Possible scenario
Managed Deterrence
45% Chance
Canada treats the U.S. military-risk planning as a deterrence and crisis-management exercise rather than a prelude to conflict. Backchannel talks involving Mark Carney, U.S. officials, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European allies reduce the chance of a direct confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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