Possible scenario
Limited Coercive Incident
18% Chance
A direct military encounter occurs but remains below the threshold of sustained combat. The most plausible trigger is a U.S. assertion of operational access in the Arctic or around Greenland that Canada views as a sovereignty challenge.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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