Possible scenario
Strike Remains Contained
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a contained military episode rather than a sustained blockade. Russia demonstrates it can target military cargo near Mykolaiv, but Ukraine continues using dispersed routes, air defenses, and rapid repairs to keep the Black Sea corridor functioning.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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