Possible scenario
Western Response Strengthens
20% Chance
The attack could accelerate Western efforts to protect Ukraine's southern logistics network. The response is more likely to involve air-defense interceptors, surveillance, and port-security aid than direct NATO naval escort operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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