Possible scenario
Limited Access Deal
35% Chance
The Trump administration converts the secret talks into a narrow rare-earth access arrangement, likely framed as a national-security carve-out rather than a political normalization with Myanmar's junta. The most realistic version uses Treasury licensing, traceability rules, and third-country processing to limit direct sanction exposure.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Tickers
- EFR+0.7%
- MP-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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