Possible scenario
Talks Collapse
25% Chance
The talks become politically untenable once lawmakers, human-rights groups, and Myanmar opposition networks challenge any engagement with the military regime. The administration either abandons the channel or narrows it to a non-operational review, leaving the rare-earth supply problem unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Tickers
- +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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