Possible scenario
China Counters Move
25% Chance
China treats the Myanmar talks as an attempt to bypass its rare-earth export controls and responds through border enforcement, diplomatic pressure, or commercial influence over Myanmar supply chains. This is plausible because most Myanmar heavy rare-earth output has historically flowed into Chinese processing networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Industrials -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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