Possible scenario
Retaliation Widens Conflict
22% Chance
Washington concludes the tanker attacks require direct military punishment of IRGC launch sites, radars or naval assets. Iran responds asymmetrically, raising the risk that Gulf energy infrastructure, US bases and commercial shipping become part of a broader exchange.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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