Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Deepens
27% Chance
Iran intensifies attacks enough that shipowners, insurers and charterers voluntarily pull back from Hormuz transits. The strait is not formally closed, but the commercial effect is a sharp temporary reduction in Gulf crude, LNG and refined-product flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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