Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Attacks
36% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, France, Saudi Arabia and the UAE expand naval escorts and surveillance through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran keeps probing with drones, mines and small boats, but most Gulf exports continue with delays and higher insurance costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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