From todayTrump Advisers Weigh Lutnick Ouster as Bessent Says Firing Huang Won’t Let Nvidia Off the Hook

• 

  35%

  −1.1%

  Lutnick Is Removed

  The White House decides that Howard Lutnick has become a political liability after reports that he ignored Trump’s Nvidia smuggling orders. A new acting Commerce secretary or special export-control czar moves quickly to show tougher enforcement on Nvidia and China-bound AI chips.

  Technology −1.8% · Industrials −0.3%

• 

  30%

  −0.2%

  Lutnick Survives

  Trump keeps Lutnick in place to avoid admitting that the Commerce Department mishandled the Nvidia arrangement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and congressional Republicans still force tighter supervision of Nvidia’s China revenue-sharing deal.

  Technology −0.2%

• 

  20%

  −0.5%

  Nvidia Takes Blame

  The political system narrows responsibility toward Nvidia and former CEO Jensen Huang rather than the broader Trump cabinet. Bessent’s statement that firing Huang will not let Nvidia off the hook points to corporate penalties, monitorship, and possible executive testimony.

  Technology −0.4%

• 

  15%

  −0.9%

  China Retaliates

  Beijing treats the U.S. investigation and spy allegations as a political attack on Chinese buyers and responds with its own procurement or antitrust review. The outcome would deepen uncertainty for U.S. semiconductor companies with China exposure, but the immediate effect remains sector-specific.

  Technology −1.4% · Industrials −0.3%