Possible scenario
Rule Sticks Smoothly
45% Chance
The final Federal Reserve stress-test rule is implemented largely as written, reducing year-to-year swings in stress capital buffers for large banks. This is the most likely path because the rule follows months of Fed signaling, bank litigation pressure, and earlier 2025 steps toward lower stress-test capital volatility.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- MS+1.5%
- GS+1.3%
- JPM+1.1%
- C+1.1%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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