Possible scenario
Broader Capital Relief
25% Chance
The stress-test rule becomes a precedent for a wider softening of post-crisis bank capital rules, including the U.S. Basel III Endgame package. This path is plausible because the Fed has already moved from a proposed 2023 capital hike toward multiple 2025-2026 reductions.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- GS+2.2%
- MS+2.0%
- C+1.3%
- BAC+1.2%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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