Possible scenario
Major Florida Landfall
42% Chance
Isaias is already a Category 3 hurricane with extreme wind warnings in place, making a damaging Florida landfall the base case. The most likely path brings destructive winds, coastal surge, power outages, airport closures, and near-term insurance-loss repricing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Utilities -0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.