Possible scenario
Militarized Policy Turn
25% Chance
The election result may be used to claim a renewed mandate for war spending and military mobilization policies. Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and the Kremlin could press the Duma for larger procurement, manpower and internal-security allocations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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