Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
20% Chance
Moscow responds to the bridge destruction with missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. The most likely targets are energy facilities, ports, rail hubs and command sites rather than direct escalation with NATO.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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