Possible scenario
Broader Ukrainian Interdiction
25% Chance
Ukraine uses the bridge destruction as part of a wider effort to isolate Crimea and degrade Russia's southern logistics. Follow-on drone and missile attacks target rail nodes, fuel depots and command links across Crimea, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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