Possible scenario
Contained Logistics Disruption
45% Chance
Russia absorbs the Chonhar Bridge loss by rerouting military traffic through Perekop, Armyansk and the Kerch route. The damage complicates supply into northern Crimea but does not immediately change the front line or trigger a wider military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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